Betting
The overround also tells you something about the race itself. The overround is 5.9 per cent, meaning the bookmaker has built a theoretical edge of just under 6 per cent into the market. It is the bookmaker’s theoretical profit margin before a single bet is settled. In practice, they always sum to more — typically between 110 and 130 per cent for horse racing — and that excess is the overround. In a perfectly fair market with no margin, the implied probabilities of all runners in a race would sum to exactly 100 per cent.
By the time the race starts, competition among operators has usually tightened the market. Bookmakers open with a cautious book and adjust as money comes in. The first show of prices in the morning — often called the early prices — tends to carry a wider margin than the Starting Price. On the raceday market itself, there are consistent patterns. Ante-post markets on the Cheltenham Gold Cup or Champion Hurdle typically run between 140 and 160 per cent, which is lower than the National but still significantly wider than raceday. The aggregate effect across 20 runners adds up to a much wider margin than in a six-runner race.
@ScottyPick6 Scotty thank you so much for the winnings from the Saturday webinar. Biggest payout of my life! Took down that LP5 @BelmontStakes today! This includes first time starters.
The commission you pay on an exchange winning bet reduces your effective odds. On feature races — the Champion Hurdle, the Gold Cup, the Grand National, Saturday afternoon handicaps at major tracks — the exchange market is deep enough that you can back at the displayed price without difficulty. Where a bookmaker might offer 5/1 on a horse with a 120 per cent book, the exchange might show 5.5 (or 9/2 in fractional terms) on the same runner with a total market overround of 103 per cent. When bookmakers extend place terms on big handicaps — paying five or six places instead of four — they compensate by widening the margin on the place element of each-way bets. At the lower end, you find small-field Flat races — Group 1 contests with five or six runners where the form is well established and bookmakers compete aggressively on the headline price of the favourite.
The 120 per cent book means the prices across the entire field are compressed, which means every price is slightly lower than it should be in a fair market. A significant share of that GGY exists because online bookies not on gamstop punters accept worse odds than they need to. Horse racing odds comparison is the single most important habit a punter can develop, and it is also the one most punters neglect. With the assistance of Equinedge I hit several races yesterday and netted over $1100 in profit. Although it won’t tell you how much the horse will pay, it does show the amount of profit you will get if you win and the amount you have to bet to get it.
Most bookmakers cap BOG payouts — some at a maximum enhanced payout of 500 pounds, others at a maximum uplift of a certain number of odds points. On horses that drift — less money than expected, price lengthening — BOG gives you the benefit of the higher SP. On horses that are supported in the market — money coming in, price shortening — BOG adds nothing, because the SP is lower than the price you took. Best Odds Guaranteed is one of the most powerful tools available to horse racing punters, and it is routinely undervalued.
This website assumes no responsibility for the actions by and makes no representation or endorsement of any activities offered by any reviewed racebook or ADW. Log into your account and you will find a rebate of up to 10% from the previous days horse wagers. “We trust US Racing to provide accurate and thoughtful coverage of racing. They are the best source for horse racing odds.” The horse racing betting odds for each horse are displayed on a tote board at the track or on the betting ticket online. Betting on the outcome of horse racing can be fun and profitable, and if you know what you’re doing, you might even be able to beat the odds.
The difference between 3/1 and 7/2 is not dramatic on a single bet, but across 200 bets over a season it represents dozens of units of profit or loss. Checking the overround before you bet is not something most punters do, but it takes less than a minute with a calculator or an odds comparison site. Small-field races with well-fancied favourites tend to carry lower overrounds (closer to 110 per cent) because the market is more efficient and bookmakers compete harder on the headline price of the favourite. The difference between 5/1 and 6/1 on the same horse in the same race is a 20 per cent increase in profit — free money, essentially, for the 30 seconds it takes to check a second bookmaker.
If the exchange is at 7.0 and the bookmaker is at 6/1, the prices are closer, and after exchange commission the bookmaker might even be marginally better. Oddschecker is the most widely used in the UK and shows prices from all major bookmakers side by side, updated in near-real time. If the exchange offers 7.0 and the bookmaker offers 5/1, the bookmaker is taking a significantly larger margin on that runner, and you should either back on the exchange or find a bookmaker whose price is closer to the exchange level. On short-priced selections — odds-on or evens — the exchange commission can actually make the bookmaker price competitive or even better, because the commission is a fixed percentage of the profit regardless of the odds.
